Expected vs actual
Expected values the model’s book at the 11:00 bar open — the backtest assumption, zero costs.
Actual is IB’s net liquidation. The gap terms sum, per day, to actual_nav − expected_nav.
SPY and QQQ are compounded in this page from the daily spy_ret/qqq_ret the ledger carries;
the statistics below are likewise computed here from the nav rows.